AceShowbiz - As of 1 p.m. ET on Friday, March 13, more than $116 million had already been wagered on the upcoming Academy Awards across two major prediction platforms. On Kalshi, bettors had placed $54.8 million, while competitor Polymarket saw $61.4 million in bets. According to a Kalshi representative speaking to The Hollywood Reporter, betting activity is expected to increase exponentially Over the weekend leading up to the ceremony.

One of the most popular prop bets on Kalshi is on the question of who will actually attend the Oscars. Some of the favorites include Hudson Williams, star of Heated Rivalry, who has reportedly confirmed attendance for unexplained reasons. Other top picks are Leonardo DiCaprio, known for his role in One Battle After Another, and Kylie Jenner, who is partnered with Timothée Chalamet, the lead of Marty Supreme.

Speculation also surrounds Zendaya, who is widely expected to attend either as a presenter or to support her partner Tom Holland during his Marvel Cinematic Universe reunion, or perhaps both. Other possible attendees include Sean Penn (also from One Battle After Another), Olivia Jade (partner of Jacob Elordi), Hailee Steinfeld (a star in the heavily nominated Sinners though not a nominee herself), Ryan Gosling, Margot Robbie, Connor Storrie (from Heated Rivalry), Kevin Hart, and Taylor Swift. These names are ranked from more to less likely in that order, but none are considered guaranteed attendees.

A newer betting market has emerged on Kalshi regarding which topics Academy Awards host Conan O'Brien will mention during his opening monologue. The most likely words to be referenced are Hollywood and Timothée Chalamet. Other terms with high probabilities include Netflix, Warner Bros., and AI. Less likely but still possible mentions include Hulu, podcast, Jeffrey Epstein, President Trump, ICE, and Will Smith. The mention of Will Smith remains prominent, reflecting past controversies that tend to resurface each Oscars season.

In the acting categories, Sean Penn seems poised for a strong showing in the best supporting actor race on both Kalshi and Polymarket, to the detriment of Stellan Skarsgard, who stars in Sentimental Value. Although Skarsgard was once considered a solid contender, his odds have weakened significantly in recent days.

The best supporting actress category is currently highly competitive. Amy Madigan for Weapons holds the lead but without a commanding margin. Close behind is Teyana Taylor from One Battle After Another, who actually swapped odds positions with Madigan on March 1 after Madigan’s win at the Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards). Another contender gaining ground is Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners, who has improved her standing notably since her BAFTA win three weeks ago.

Most new bets are flowing into the best actor category, followed by best picture, where One Battle After Another is the clear favorite. In the best actor race, Michael B. Jordan for Sinners has moved ahead of Timothée Chalamet, driven largely by recent awards results. Meanwhile, Leonardo DiCaprio has become a distant long shot, with his odds steadily declining.

How reliable are these prediction markets? Their scale lends some credibility, as the large number of bettors tends to balance out individual errors. Many participants conduct thorough research and follow expert analysis, including insights from The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg.

So far, bettors on both Polymarket and Kalshi have been quite accurate in predicting this year’s Oscar nominees. There were some misses, such as overlooking supporting actor nominee Delroy Lindo for Sinners in favor of Paul Mescal for Hamnet. In the best actress category, Kalshi users incorrectly favored Chase Infiniti from One Battle After Another over nominee Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue.

In supporting actress, Polymarket bettors leaned toward Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good, while Kalshi users backed Odessa A'zion from Marty Supreme. Critics suggest both missed Elle Fanning’s acclaimed performance in Sentimental Value. Despite these exceptions, the major categories have been largely well predicted across both platforms.

The final verdict awaits the Oscars ceremony on Sunday night, which will reveal if the bettors’ confidence translates into success when the stakes are highest.