AceShowbiz - With ballots now in the hands—or rather, the laptops—of nearly 10,000 eligible members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the clock is ticking. Voters have until March 5 to submit their individual choices ahead of the 98th Academy Awards on March 15, 2026.

This year’s Oscar race has been a marathon stretching nearly an entire year, beginning as early as April 17, 2025, when Sinners debuted. The film set a new record by earning 16 nominations, underscoring the extended timeline of the awards season. The Cannes Film Festival in May further shaped the competition, premiering four of the five Best International Feature nominees, including two Best Picture contenders: Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent, which together accumulated 13 nominations. June brought the unveiling of F1, another Best Picture nominee from Apple and Warner Bros.

The official Oscar campaign kicked off in the fall with the trio of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals, launching a 6½-month promotional blitz. Yet, as this timeline illustrates, Oscar season is no longer confined to a few months but is a year-round endeavor.

This year introduces a new rule aimed at increasing voter accountability: members must attest that they have actually seen the films they are voting on. While the Academy does not require a formal oath, members must confirm they have watched nominees either in theaters, through the Academy’s digital screening room—which tracks if the film was played—or via other legitimate viewing methods. This honor system addresses a long-standing issue where many eligible films go unseen by large portions of the voting body, effectively diminishing their chances of nomination.

The Television Academy has implemented similar viewing attestations in the past, sometimes supplemented by signed affidavits per category. The Motion Picture Academy hopes this measure will encourage broader viewership among voters, potentially leveling the playing field.

A closer look at the nominations reveals a pattern: fewer films dominate the ballots. Excluding Short and Documentary Feature categories, only 30 feature films out of 317 eligible titles garnered nominations across 20 categories. Half of those 30 films have just one nomination, and if you remove Animated Feature and Makeup/Hairstyling categories, only eight films received a single nod in 18 major categories. By contrast, just 15 films earned multiple nominations, demonstrating how a small number of titles monopolize the spotlight.

This concentration suggests a challenging landscape for newcomers or smaller productions. Without a major campaign or a distributor with a clear strategy, like Neon—which secured four of the five International Feature nominations by acquiring Cannes winners—films struggle to gain traction. The Academy’s push for transparency and honesty in voting acknowledges this divide between the well-backed and the underdogs. The hope is that requiring voters to confirm their viewing habits might gradually foster a fairer selection process, but for now, Oscar night’s glory remains largely confined to a select few.

Industry dynamics are evident in the nomination distribution. Warner Bros. leads with 30 nominations and shares four more through its distribution of Apple’s F1. In stark contrast, Paramount, once a major player, received zero nominations, despite having films like Roofman—co-produced by current Academy president Lynette Howell Taylor—that did not attract adequate attention. The phrase “If you can’t beat ’em, buy ’em” aptly captures David Ellison’s determination to take over Warner Bros., a move clearly motivated by such disparities.

Turning to the year’s true Oscar underdogs, the spotlight falls on those with single nominations, often for performances or films that otherwise went unnoticed by the wider Academy. In the acting categories, 11 of the 20 nominees come from just three films—One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, and Sinners—with four, four, and three nominations respectively.

The Academy’s voting system allows individual branches to nominate, but the final vote involves the entire membership—provided they verify they have seen the nominees. This structure benefits acting nominees from multi-nominated films, as their movies are more likely to be viewed by the whole Academy. Indeed, five other acting nominees hail from Best Picture nominees, giving them a substantial advantage.

But what about those actors who do not appear in Best Picture nominees? Their uphill battle relies heavily on the new viewing attestation rule. If it works as intended, it could offer hope to performers like Ethan Hawke, Kate Hudson, Rose Byrne, and Amy Madigan, who face tough odds despite their acclaimed work.