AceShowbiz - Like the timeless parable of the blind men and the elephant, this year’s Oscar race presents a complex picture shaped by multiple perspectives.

On one hand, the contest feels almost decided, with Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another appearing poised to claim both Best Picture and Best Director honors. Similarly, Jessie Buckley of Hamnet is widely expected to secure the Best Actress award.

As always, the season follows its familiar rituals: Governors Awards, shortlists, nomination voting, reaction statements, the Nominees Luncheon, interviews, campaign stops—and then repeating the cycle anew.

However, this year introduces a significant procedural shift. In April, the Academy announced that members must now watch all nominated films within each category to qualify to vote in that category’s final round. This mandate comes amid growing use of the members-only Academy Screening Room (ASR), which tracks viewing habits electronically.

All these elements collide as the final voting phase begins on Thursday, February 26, marking an eight-day window for members to cast their decisive ballots. Here’s a detailed look at the current state of play and what lies ahead.

The New Viewing Requirement

Historically, the Academy encouraged voters to watch every nominated film but never enforced it strictly, except in select categories. This year, the rise of the ASR platform enables the Academy to monitor exactly which films members view. To be eligible to vote in a category, members must now complete viewing of all nominated films in that category.

Academy members have been receiving frequent emails reminding them of their viewing progress, listing categories where they’re qualified to vote and those where they still need to watch films. While many members appreciate the intent behind the rule, the relentless notifications have been a source of mild frustration.

In some preliminary categories, voters are required to confirm where and when they saw a film outside the ASR. For final voting, the system relies largely on an honor code: members must either stream the films on the ASR or click a “Mark Watched” button if they viewed them elsewhere.

If voters adhere to this rule and watch all nominated films, the question remains whether this will influence outcomes. Over a decade ago, the international and documentary categories enforced theater viewing rules, which limited voter participation and resulted in notable upsets such as "The Lives of Others" winning over "Pan’s Labyrinth" internationally, and "Born Into Brothels" beating "Super Size Me" in documentary.

With easier access to films on the ASR and the removal of theater requirements, the potential for surprises may be diminished, but it cannot be ruled out entirely.

The Best Picture Battle

A common question circulating among industry observers is whether the Best Picture race is already decided. The short answer is that it strongly feels that way. One Battle After Another has dominated nearly every major precursor, from the Critics Choice Awards—where it once appeared neck-and-neck with Sinners—to BAFTA, where Hamnet was thought to hold an advantage due to its British roots.

Conventional wisdom suggests that the film could clinch the prize by winning at the Producers Guild Awards (PGA), which employs the same ranked-choice voting system used by the Oscars for Best Picture. Yet, a notable point exists: PGA voting concluded 25 days before results will be announced, meaning any recent shifts in voter sentiment won’t be reflected in their outcome. This delay could obscure emergent momentum for any contenders challenging One Battle After Another.

Exploring alternative scenarios, one might wonder if Hamnet could gain traction through second-choice votes from supporters of films like Train Dreams and Sentimental Value. Or whether the edgy appeal of Sinners might attract voters favoring less conventional films such as Bugonia and Frankenstein.

Though theoretically possible, the prevailing view is that One Battle After Another will likely maintain an insurmountable lead once first-choice votes are tallied and redistributed. To borrow from Bob Dylan’s lyric, “It’s not over yet... but it’s gettin’ there.”