AceShowbiz - Awards season often lulls viewers into predictability, but this year’s Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress categories are proving to be some of the most unpredictable and thrilling in recent memory. With multiple winners emerging from major precursor ceremonies and no clear frontrunner, the race for the Oscars in these categories is anything but straightforward.

Each week, the landscape shifts as wins and nominations from key awards ceremonies reshape the outlook, leaving even seasoned observers constantly revising their predictions. In fact, it could be argued that any of the five male or four of the five female nominees have a legitimate shot at winning, underscoring the sheer volatility of this season’s supporting races.

To better understand the complexity, let’s delve into what the recent results from major awards indicate, what historical data suggests about the weight of certain wins, and ultimately where the momentum appears to be heading — or if anyone can really say for sure at this stage.

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The Supporting Races So Far

TheWrap’s Awards Tracker aggregates data from four critical precursor ceremonies: the Screen Actors Guild Awards (referred to here as the Actor Awards), the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes, and the Critics Choice Awards. Despite analyzing these four, the results have been wildly inconsistent this year.

At the Critics Choice Awards, Jacob Elordi and Amy Madigan emerged as the first winners, signaling early frontrunners. However, the Golden Globes crowned Stellan Skarsgård and Teyana Taylor instead, while the BAFTAs gave top honors to Sean Penn and Wunmi Mosaku. This results in six different winners across the four key events, with no consensus emerging as the Screen Actors Guild Awards remain the last major indicator before the Oscars.

This stands in stark contrast to recent years where supporting races often had clear winners sweeping all or most precursor awards. For example, the last two Best Supporting Actress winners — Zoe Saldaña and Da'Vine Joy Randolph — each swept all four major precursor trophies. Similarly, Ariana DeBose, Laura Dern, Allison Janney, and Viola Davis also had dominant seasons with precursor clean sweeps in previous years.

Best Supporting Actor has historically been even more predictable. Six of the last eight winners captured all four major precursor awards en route to their Oscars. The two exceptions were Ke Huy Quan, who missed a BAFTA win, and Troy Kotsur, who missed a Golden Globe. While these races included some remarkable winners, they lacked the drama and unpredictability currently on display.

Which Wins Carry the Most Weight?

Looking at historical trends, the Golden Globe winner for Best Supporting Actor has the strongest correlation with winning the Oscar, boasting a 77% success rate this century. Seven of the last eight Academy Award winners in this category also won the Globe, with the single anomaly being Troy Kotsur for “CODA,” who did not win the Globe but secured the Oscar nonetheless.

The Screen Actors Guild Awards sit just behind the Globes, with a 73% correlation rate for Supporting Actor winners going on to win the Oscar. The Critics Choice Awards follow at 69%, and the BAFTAs at 62%.

For Best Supporting Actress, the SAG Awards have proven to be the most predictive, with 81% of winners securing the Oscar since 2010. The only exception was Regina King for “If Beale Street Could Talk,” who won the Oscar without a SAG Award but had won at the Globes and Critics Choice. Critics Choice winners hold the second spot with a 73% crossover rate, followed by the BAFTAs at 69% and the Golden Globes at 65%.

Given this data, it might seem that Skarsgård (Globe winner) and Madigan (Critics Choice winner) should be leading the pack. Yet, the story is far more nuanced.

Critical Snubs That Complicate Predictions

Despite their wins, both Skarsgård and Madigan face significant hurdles due to missed nominations at other major awards, which affect their overall chances according to the Awards Tracker.

Skarsgård did not receive a nomination at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which is notable since foreign-language performances were entirely shut out this year. Historically, only two actors this century have won the Best Supporting Actor Oscar without a SAG nomination: Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained,” who missed a critics nomination but won the BAFTA and Globe; and Benicio del Toro, who won in 2001 for “Traffic” but had a SAG miss that was somewhat technical since he won SAG in a leading role category.

Madigan also missed a BAFTA nomination, which complicates her candidacy. Since 2000, six supporting actresses have won the Oscar despite a BAFTA snub, but all had other wins or nominations that Madigan lacks. For instance, four of these winners — Angelina Jolie, Rachel Weisz, Melissa Leo, and Regina King — all won the Globes, which Madigan did not. Others had lead nominations at the BAFTAs, which she also missed.

The only notable exception is Marcia Gay Harden, who in 2001 won the Oscar despite missing nominations at the SAG, BAFTAs, Globes, and Critics Choice — an extraordinary run that remains a rare anomaly in awards history.

Who’s Leading the Pack According to the Awards Tracker?

The Awards Tracker currently favors Jacob Elordi, placing him at a 33.33% chance of winning Best Supporting Actor. This is largely due to his Critics Choice win, which has become a strong indicator in recent years, with the last nine Oscar winners in this category also having won Critics Choice.

Next in line is Sean Penn, with a 20% chance. Although the Critics Choice Award is a powerful signal, it’s worth noting that the only time a Supporting Actor won the Oscar with only a Critics Choice Award was in 1996, when Kevin Spacey won for “The Usual Suspects” despite losing at the Globes and SAG Awards and missing the BAFTA nomination. That case was unique, as the Critics Choice initially combined multiple films in their award that year, making it a special circumstance.

Meanwhile, Wunmi Mosaku tops the Best Supporting Actress race with a commanding 77.27% chance of winning, far ahead of Teyana Taylor at 25%. Mosaku’s lead is fueled by a rare pattern this season: she won the BAFTA, missed the Globes nomination, and has not won other major awards yet. This trajectory mirrors that of Youn Yuh-jung for “Minari,” who ultimately secured the Oscar after a SAG win, an indicator that could prove crucial in the coming weeks for Mosaku and other contenders.

Final Thoughts on the Supporting Races

As the Screen Actors Guild Awards approach, the last major precursor ceremony before the Oscars, the current chaos in the supporting categories may finally begin to clear. Historically, SAG wins have been the strongest predictor for Supporting Actress, and highly influential for Supporting Actor as well. Yet, with so many different winners across the Globe, BAFTA, and Critics Choice, this year’s races remain wide open.

While the data favors Jacob Elordi and Wunmi Mosaku at the moment, the unpredictability reflected in the multiple snubs and wins suggests that any of the nominees in these categories could still emerge victorious. The season’s volatility makes these supporting races some of the most exciting and difficult to call in recent memory — a welcome change from the “cakewalk” years past.

Ultimately, the final SAG results and the Oscars themselves will determine whether history’s trends hold firm or if this year’s wild supporting races will rewrite the rules.