AceShowbiz - The summer box office season officially kicks off in early May, but this weekend sets a powerful prelude with the release of Lionsgate and Universal’s highly anticipated Michael, a biopic chronicling the extraordinary life of pop icon Michael Jackson. Despite sky-high expectations, the film’s success may not hinge on surpassing every prediction to become a significant hit for its studios.

Directed by Antoine Fuqua, Michael is crafted as the first installment of a planned two-part series retelling Michael Jackson’s career. The film stars Jaafar Jackson portraying his legendary uncle, tracing his journey from his early days as a child star performing with the Jackson 5 to his ascension as the biggest music superstar of the 1980s, propelled by landmark albums like Thriller and Bad.

Since its development began three years ago with Fuqua’s attachment, Michael has been anticipated as a potential blockbuster, expected to be one of the top-grossing films of its release year. This anticipation intensified after Disney shifted major Marvel titles such as Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars away from their traditional early May release window, leaving a gap that Michael appears poised to fill.

Looking back at the impact of music biopics, the 2018 release of Bohemian Rhapsody showcased how powerful this genre can be, grossing $903.6 million worldwide. It not only set a record for the highest-grossing music biopic but also ranked second among all biopics behind Oppenheimer. Given Michael Jackson’s stature as a global superstar arguably larger than Freddie Mercury’s, some have speculated that Michael could eclipse those numbers.

However, tempered expectations are warranted. Critical reception for Michael is notably less favorable than for Bohemian Rhapsody. While the latter earned a moderately positive 60% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, Michael currently holds a disappointing 35% score. Critics have praised Jaafar Jackson’s performance and his faithful recreation of iconic moments—from the Moonwalk at Motown 25 to the legendary Thriller video. Yet, the film as a whole has been criticized for presenting a hagiographic portrayal of Jackson’s life, largely avoiding mention of the controversies and molestation allegations that surfaced during the 1990s and 2000s.

According to reports from Variety, this sanitized tone resulted from significant edits and reshoots. Scenes directly addressing Jackson’s legal troubles, including a depiction of his 1993 arrest, were removed after Jackson’s estate invoked a clause in a settlement with one of the accusers that prohibited any reference to the individual in films. Consequently, the narrative shifts focus away from those allegations.

Rather than exploring the darker, more complex aspects of Jackson’s life, the film centers its dramatic tension on his fraught relationship with his father, Joseph Jackson, portrayed by Colman Domingo. This storyline frames Joseph as viewing Michael’s solo career as a threat to the Jackson 5’s legacy, providing the film’s primary conflict.

Despite the negative critical response to these choices, Michael Jackson’s enduring global fanbase is expected to drive strong attendance for Michael on opening weekend. Even conservative box office estimates predict the film will set a new record for music biopic openings, surpassing the $60.2 million debut of the 2015 N.W.A. biopic Straight Outta Compton.

Domestic box office projections for Michael currently range between $65 million and $70 million. Some industry insiders have suggested the film could climb as high as $80 million, approaching the $82.4 million opening of Oppenheimer in July 2023. These figures would mark a major success for Lionsgate, which handles domestic distribution, while Universal manages the international release.

If Michael opens to around $65 million, it would represent the highest non-franchise opening in Lionsgate’s history and rank seventh on the studio’s all-time list. It would join four Hunger Games films, the final Twilight installment Breaking Dawn - Part 2, and John Wick: Chapter 4, the latter having the lowest opening in that group at $73.8 million.

From this projected opening, Michael would be well positioned to surpass the unadjusted $216 million domestic total earned by Bohemian Rhapsody. Achieving this milestone would make it the sixth Lionsgate film to exceed $200 million at the domestic box office and allow it to outgross John Wick 4, which brought in $187 million domestically. The film’s ultimate global success, however, will depend on Universal’s performance overseas.

The film’s reception outside of Michael Jackson’s devoted fanbase remains a key question. Will audiences be drawn to the faithful recreation of Jackson’s most iconic performances, or will the film’s avoidance of controversial topics deter casual viewers? Upcoming competition from sequels like The Devil Wears Prada and Mortal Kombat may also influence its international box office prospects.

At its core, Michael follows the same blueprint as other music biopics such as Bob Marley: One Love, Elvis, and A Complete Unknown. Success in this genre typically depends on a charismatic lead who can convincingly embody the musician’s signature performances. Based on positive remarks from some critics, the film succeeds in delivering that element.

Ultimately, while Michael may not dethrone Bohemian Rhapsody as the biggest music biopic ever, it is poised to be a commercial success for Lionsgate and a strong contender within its genre. The film’s box office trajectory will be closely watched in the weeks following its release as audiences respond to its portrayal of one of music’s most iconic figures.