AceShowbiz - The final stage of voting for the Academy Awards has officially started, with the Academy’s members casting ballots through next week. This year’s ballot features several notable changes and a competitive field across most categories.

One major addition is the new Oscar category for Best Casting, which raises the total number of awards. This fresh category has sparked some debate among voters, especially those outside the casting directors branch, who feel unsure about the criteria.

Another significant modification this year is that all Oscar categories now list the eligible individuals alongside the nominated films, rather than just naming the films themselves. This change potentially benefits perennial nominees who are well-regarded but often overlooked.

For the first time, voters must confirm that they have seen every nominee in a category before casting a ballot there. While this new rule aims to uphold fairness, voters can still bypass it by affirming they viewed titles through platforms outside the Academy’s Screening Room.

Meanwhile, as the final voting window opens, studios and campaigns continue to pull out all the stops to sway Academy members. Netflix, for example, rented a West Hollywood gallery space for 48 hours to showcase framed stills from the Best Picture contender Train Dreams. This exhibition highlighted the work of cinematographer Adolpho Veloso, whose craft earned him a Best Cinematography nomination. The gallery opened with a cocktail reception attended by numerous Academy voters, where Brazilian actor and Best Actor nominee Wagner Moura of The Secret Agent joined to toast Veloso’s achievements. While the direct impact of such events on Oscar outcomes is uncertain, campaigns like this demonstrate the lengths to which nominees go to leave a lasting impression.

(Left to right) Wagner Moura, Adolpho Veloso, and Clint Bentley at the opening of the Train Dreams exhibition.

Over the past two weekends, several key awards shows have influenced the Oscar race. The Spirit Awards proved particularly beneficial for Train Dreams, which secured Best Feature, Best Director for Clint Bentley, and Best Cinematography for Adolpho Veloso. Rose Byrne, nominated for Best Actress, won the Spirit Award for Best Lead Performance. The Secret Agent, nominated for both Best Picture and Best International Feature, took home the award for Best International Film.

On February 22, the BAFTA Awards took place, though overshadowed by a regrettable incident during a presentation involving Best Actor nominee Michael B. Jordan and Best Supporting Actor nominee Delroy Lindo of Sinners. Despite this, the BAFTAs heavily favored One Battle After Another, which won six awards including Best Film, Best Director for Paul Thomas Anderson, Best Supporting Actor for Sean Penn, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

However, the BAFTA results offered little clarity in the most hotly contested acting races. In the Best Actor category, Marty Supreme’s Timothée Chalamet, widely seen as a frontrunner for the Oscar, lost to Robert Aramayo of I Swear, who is not eligible for an Oscar this year. The Best Supporting Actor award went to Sean Penn for One Battle After Another, despite him lacking recognition elsewhere. Meanwhile, in the Best Supporting Actress race, Sinners nominee Wunmi Mosaku triumphed over fellow Oscar nominees.

Currently, some Oscar races seem locked in place: Paul Thomas Anderson is favored to win Best Director for One Battle After Another; Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner for Best Actress for Hamnet; and the song “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters appears poised to win Best Original Song. Yet, many categories remain highly competitive, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best International Feature, and Best Documentary Feature.

As the Oscar race progresses, the next update will offer final predictions. With so much still uncertain, the industry and audiences alike will be watching closely to see how the campaigns and voting unfold over the coming days.

Note from Scott Feinberg: These forecasts are not personal endorsements but analytical projections based on screenings, campaign strategies, voter feedback, and historical trends. They aim to predict the Academy members’ decisions rather than influence them.