AceShowbiz - For decades, the Best Actor Oscar category has often seemed all but decided well before the ceremony itself. While surprises have occasionally shaken things up—like the 2021 Oscars, where a posthumous win for Chadwick Boseman was expected but Anthony Hopkins took home the prize instead—typically, a clear frontrunner emerges and walks away victorious. Last year’s win by Adrien Brody for The Brutalist was also unexpected, and his first win years prior for The Pianist was even more so. Yet, less than two weeks before this year’s Oscars, the Best Actor field feels unusually open, with several nominees showing strong potential paths to victory. This is a rare occurrence considering the trend throughout the 2010s where the early favorites dominated the category.

This unpredictability was solidified over the weekend at the SAG/AFTRA Awards, where Michael B. Jordan earned the Best Actor award for his compelling dual role as twin brothers in Sinners. This choice is significant; Jordan has demonstrated consistent excellence without becoming overexposed since rising to major stardom, frequently collaborating with director Ryan Coogler to great effect. Despite his strong performance, Jordan is not the traditional front-runner for the Oscar this year. That position initially seemed to belong to Timothée Chalamet, who won a Golden Globe for Marty Supreme. Though the Globes often have little overlap with Academy voters and are sometimes dismissed, Chalamet has campaigned vigorously in recent months, demonstrating a dedication that reflects his character’s intensity.

Many expected the Oscar race to narrow down to a final showdown between Jordan and Chalamet, two of the biggest box-office stars under 50. However, other nominees remain very much in contention, with comparisons to previous Best Actor winners fueling speculation. The category is unusually deep this year, featuring five outstanding performances, unlike some recent years when the field felt less competitive. Below is a breakdown of the frontrunners and what past winners their chances might evoke.

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Past Winner Precedent: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Curiously, Leonardo DiCaprio is the nominee least predicted to win, despite his high profile and previous Oscar success. On one hand, it’s understandable; after years as a frontrunner and finally winning for The Revenant, perhaps the Academy is less inclined to reward him again so soon. On the other hand, the Academy has a history of honoring beloved actors multiple times. Frances McDormand has won three times, Emma Stone twice, Tom Hanks twice (including back-to-back years), and Anthony Hopkins won Oscars decades apart, even for a film less widely seen than One Battle After Another.

Hopkins’ win came without a narrative push; his legacy was already secure, but the performance itself was deeply admired. Similarly, DiCaprio could be recognized for his portrayal of a volatile, burnout figure struggling through personal and political chaos. His role in One Battle After Another completes an unofficial trilogy of American misfit characters, following Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Killers of the Flower Moon. It is arguably his most emotionally resonant work among the three. Yet, for reasons unclear, this category does not favor One Battle After Another as a strong contender, making a DiCaprio win a surprising outcome.

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Past Winner Precedent: Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas

When nominations were first revealed, many speculated that Ethan Hawke might be the dark horse capable of upsetting Chalamet. As a seasoned actor with a 40-year career, Hawke offers veteran gravitas and experience. Both Hawke and Chalamet are on their third Oscar nominations, but Hawke’s extensive filmography positions him as a potential spoiler.

However, this narrative has cooled somewhat after Hawke’s wins remained mostly within critics’ circles rather than major awards. Nonetheless, critics’ favorites playing troubled, charismatic alcoholics have triumphed in the past—take Nicolas Cage’s 1990s Oscar for Leaving Las Vegas as an example. While that was decades ago and widely predicted, the precedent exists for surprise victories in such roles, suggesting Hawke’s chances aren’t entirely extinguished.

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Past Winner Precedent: Adrien Brody, The Pianist

Wagner Moura, who also won a Golden Globe for The Secret Agent (in the drama category, contrasting with Marty Supreme’s comedy classification), is the least internationally famous nominee alongside Jordan. Yet, this underdog status can sometimes work in an actor’s favor. Adrien Brody famously won Best Actor for The Pianist against a star-studded field including Daniel Day-Lewis, Jack Nicholson, Nicolas Cage, and Michael Caine, despite being a first-time nominee and less globally renowned.

Moura has a strong international following from his work in Brazil and has collected numerous awards at home. The Academy is increasingly recognizing global talent, and the Golden Globe win elevated his profile. Additionally, The Secret Agent might have the strongest film credentials among the nominees, which could boost Moura’s chances despite the competitive category.

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Past Winner Precedent: Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump

Michael B. Jordan delivered a charismatic and technically challenging performance in Sinners, portraying twin brothers in one of the year’s most acclaimed films. This complexity and popularity have kept Jordan firmly in the race even as other contenders have gained momentum. His performance connects unexpectedly to Tom Hanks’ Oscar-winning role in Forrest Gump, despite their characters being very different, sharing only a southern background.

Jordan also channels some of Jack Nicholson’s energy, combining natural movie-star charisma with character distinctiveness. So why isn’t he the clear frontrunner? One reason may be that Sinners is seen more as a technical achievement for director Ryan Coogler and his behind-the-scenes team rather than a showcase of acting alone. Additionally, unlike Hanks in 1994, this is Jordan’s first Oscar nomination, and the Academy often seems inclined to “time-test” male performers before awarding them. This dynamic may keep Jordan from being the outright favorite despite his strong showing.

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Past Winner Precedent: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Closing the circle, Timothée Chalamet resembles a new generation Leonardo DiCaprio, evolving from youthful roles in prestigious films to box office draws without sacrificing artistic credibility. He actually leads DiCaprio in Oscar nominations at this stage, with three nods before age 30 compared to DiCaprio’s two at the same point.

However, unlike under-30 actresses who have won Best Actress without much resistance—such as Mikey Madison, Jennifer Lawrence, and Emma Stone—the Best Actor category has rarely rewarded such young men. Adrien Brody remains the only Best Actor winner under 30, barely making the age cutoff. Chalamet would be the second-youngest winner ever if he takes home the award.

Questions remain about whether Chalamet’s eagerness or any controversy surrounding Marty Supreme has dampened enthusiasm as awards season progresses. Still, his trajectory suggests he is on a fast track to winning, potentially even faster than DiCaprio. The competition is tight, making the outcome a nailbiter and a refreshing break from the predictable Best Actor races of recent years.

As the Oscars approach in less than two weeks, the Best Actor category remains one of the most exciting and unpredictable to watch. With strong contenders like Michael B. Jordan, Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, and Wagner Moura all in the mix, the award is truly up for grabs, promising a thrilling conclusion for awards fans and industry observers alike.

Jesse Hassenger (@rockmarooned) is a Brooklyn-based writer and podcaster who regularly contributes to The A.V. Club, Polygon, and The Guardian.